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This is an HTML version of an attachment to the Official Information request 'Request for the Wellington Electric Bus Business Case'.

ATTACHMENT 1 TO 2019.364: 
SETTING A CARBON TARGET  
FOR GWRC  
GWRC EMISSIONS (TONNES CO2E)
G
Scenario BAU
WRC Emissions (Tonnes CO2E) – Scenario BAU
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
2019
2025
2030
2035
2040
BUSES
GRAZING
RAIL
PORT
CORPORATE
LEASES
  2019
  2025
  2030
  2035
  2040
Carbon price [$/tonne CO2e]
 $31 
 $70 
 $140 
 $210 
 $280 
Carbon offset cost [$M/yr]
 $1.0 
 $2.1 
 $4.1 
 $6.4 
 $9.2 
Cumulative carbon emissions 
2019-xx [kT CO2e]
33
219
364
514
674
Cumulative global social cost 
of GW's emissions [$M]
 $20 
 $131 
 $217 
 $306 
 $402 
No more EV buses after 2027 (no more LTP funding) 
New building Cuba St
No end of grazing leases
Growth @2%
EV First Policy leads to 100% EV fleet by 2030
Improving grid electricity emissions factor -> 93% 
renewable by 2035

ATTACHMENT 1 TO 2019.364:  
SETTING A CARBON TARGET  
FOR GWRC  
GWRC EMISSIONS (TONNES CO2E)
G Scenario A
WRC Emissions (Tonnes CO2E) – Scenario A
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
2019
2025
2030
2035
2040
BUSES
GRAZING
RAIL
PORT
CORPORATE
LEASES
  2019
  2025
  2030
  2035
  2040
Carbon price [$/tonne CO2e]
 $31 
 $70 
 $140 
 $210 
 $280 
Carbon offset cost [$M/yr]
 $1.0 
 $2.1 
 $3.3 
 $3.8 
 $3.7 
Cumulative carbon emissions 
2019-xx [kT CO2e]
33
219
350
450
525
Cumulative global social cost  
of GW's emissions [$M]
 $20 
 $131 
 $209 
 $268 
 $313 
As with BAU except:
EV buses on replacement, full electric fleet 2040.
Grazing leases reduced by 90% between 2025 to 2040 

ATTACHMENT 1 TO 2019.364:  
SETTING A CARBON TARGET  
FOR GWRC  
GWRC EMISSIONS (TONNES CO2E)
G Scenario B
WRC Emissions (Tonnes CO2E) – Scenario B
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
2019
2025
2030
2035
2040
BUSES
GRAZING
RAIL
PORT
CORPORATE
LEASES
  2019
  2025
  2030
  2035
  2040
Carbon price [$/tonne CO2e]
 $31 
 $70 
 $140 
 $210 
 $280 
Carbon offset cost [$M/yr]
 $1.0 
 $1.8 
 $1.1 
 $1.4 
 $1.7 
Cumulative carbon emissions 
2019-xx [kT CO2e]
33
208
296
332
363
Cumulative global social cost  
of GW's emissions [$M]
 $20 
 $124 
 $176 
 $198 
 $216 
As with BAU except:
Grazing leases reduced by 90% between 2025 to 2030
100% renewable electricity 2035 onwards
Rail and Centreport electrify current fossil-fuelled assets - 
All EV buses 2030 (new contracts 100% EV)
reduce fuel use by 5%/yr