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4. (R) On 5 June, a gunman shot and killed a member of the public and took a woman
hostage at an apartment complex in Brighton, Melbourne, Australia. s6(b)(i)
The caller also contacted a
media outlet stating ‘this [hostage taking] is for IS, this is for al-Qa’ida’. The hostage
taker, 29-year-old Yacqub Khayre, hid outside the building armed with a sawn-off
shotgun and waited for police to arrive. As police assembled nearby Khayre fired at
them, injuring three officers, before Police shot and killed Khayre.
5. (R) s6(a), s6(b)(i)
NTAC has not altered the general terrorism threat level for Australia,
which remains
PROBABLE. This threat level is comparable to elements of CTAG’s
HIGH;
terrorist attack is assessed as very likely.
6. s6(a)
7. (R) Both the London and Melbourne attacks have been claimed by ISIL (Islamic
State of Iraq and Levant). The
Amaq news agency stated soldiers of the caliphate
had conducted the attacks. CTAG assesses it is likely that the attackers planned and
resourced the attacks themselves and were not directed, or directly assisted, by ISIL
core. ISIL has previously claimed attacks without having prior knowledge of them.
New Zealand Impacts
8. (S FVEY) One New Zealander is believed to have been injured in the London attack.
CTAG continues to judge that, of the terrorism threats facing New Zealanders, being
caught in attacks offshore is amongst the more probable scenarios.
9. (S FVEY) CTAG is currently not aware of any direct link between the London and
Melbourne attackers, or associates arrested in connection with the incidents, and
New Zealand. s6(a)
. We do note that investigations
and intelligence exploitation are ongoing and we cannot fully anticipate what these
might reveal.
Reaction of New Zealand-based Islamist extremists
10. (S FVEY) Previous terrorist attacks in the West, such as Manchester in May 2017,
Westminster in March 2017, the Pulse nightclub shooting in Orlando in June 2016,
and the 2015 Paris attacks, evoked a range of reactions from Islamist extremists in
New Zealand, s6(a)
. Responses included anti-Western
statements and rhetoric, generalised support for the attacks, and comments on
perceived media bias in the way events were reported.
11. (S FVEY) s6(a)
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s6(a)
We will continue to monitor and assess actual reactions and responses as
these develop.
Attack methodology
12. (S FVEY) The methodologies used in both attacks have been promoted by ISIL in the
latest issue of their English language magazine,
Rumiyah. Potential attackers are
advised to use larger load-bearing vehicles to run over people, and ideal targets
include celebrations, parades, pedestrian congested streets and outdoor markets.
The latest issue of
Rumiyah also suggests rather than taking a large number of
hostages in order to negotiate demands, the attacker should use the opportunity to
‘create as much carnage and terror’ as possible until the attacker’s location is
stormed and they are killed. CTAG assesses that in the Melbourne incident Khayre
lured law enforcement to the apartment in order to intentionally target them.
13. (S FVEY)
The use of easily obtainable weapons such as vehicles and knives has
also been widely promoted in ISIL propaganda and been used with deadly effect in
multiple attacks in the West. CTAG assesses that both the London and Melbourne
attacks involved methodologies and targets that are reasonably easy to replicate in
New Zealand. Vehicles and knives are easy to obtain and are assessed to be within
the current capability of New Zealand-based Islamist extremists.
14. (S FVEY) While firearms are more difficult to obtain in New Zealand, CTAG assesses
a hostage, or hostages, could be taken and held using sharp objects, imitation
explosives or firearms, or hoax threats of the possession of explosives or firearms.
Given the lack of technically sophisticated or prolonged preparation needed to carry
out similar attacks to London and Melbourne, CTAG assesses that it is possible there
could be little or no forewarning of an attack if one was conducted in New Zealand.
Attack Targets and Timing
15. (R) Recent propaganda distributed by ISIL has also called for attacks during
Ramadan (26 May - 24 June). Similar calls were issued in 2016 and it is possible
they materially influenced decisions to conduct attacks during this time. Major attacks
during Ramadan in 2016 included Orlando, Istanbul and Dhaka. While the exact
influence of propaganda and specific terrorist incidents on an individual is difficult to
measure, continued reinforcement of a particular weapon, tactic or target may
increase the likelihood of these weapons and tactics being used – or particular
targets being considered – for a terrorist attack.
16. (S FVEY) CTAG assesses it is likely the London attackers intentionally targeted the
London Bridge and Borough Market areas on a busy Saturday night. The large
numbers of pedestrians, tourists, and patrons at bars and restaurants in the central
city location provided a concentrated and symbolic target. CTAG continues to assess
that attacks are more likely to be carried out in an area the attacker is familiar with.
17. (S FVEY) The
Rumiyah magazine has advocated the use of siege and hostage
tactics in terrorist attacks in the West. This publication gave detailed guidance on
luring potential victims into situations where they can be killed. The method of
operation in Melbourne may well have been motivated by the ISIL propaganda. The
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apartment offered the attacker the opportunity to lure law enforcement into a place
advantageous to him.
Threat Level
18. (S FVEY) s6(a)
it is possible an
attack could occur in New Zealand with little or no intelligence forewarning.
19. (R) The terrorism threat level for New Zealand remains
LOW;
terrorist attack is
assessed as possible, but is not expected.
20. (R) CTAG continues to monitor all available domestic and international streams of
threat intelligence and will advise accordingly on any revision of the terrorism threat
level for New Zealand.
Prepared by s6(a)
Reviewed by
Released by s6(a)
Intelligence cut off date: 09 June 2017
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CONFIDENCE STATEMENT
R // AUS CAN GBR NZL USA
(R) This Threat Assessment draws on intelligence from a range of sources on whose
reliability we comment in the main text where appropriate.
(R) Our judgements regarding the threat of terrorism have been drawn from classified and
open source material, of which we are confident of the accuracy.
(R) The assessment is reliant upon an absence of threat reporting rather than positive
reporting that threats are not extant. CTAG notes that activity could occur, or may have
already occurred, that is not detected by available sources.
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HANDLING INSTRUCTIONS
This information is the property of the Combined Threat Assessment Group. It is provided to your
agency in confidence and must not be disseminated further without the prior written consent of the
Manager, Combined Threat Assessment Group. It is to be used for intelligence purposes only. It
must not be used or disclosed in any legal, administrative, or review proceedings, nor reclassified,
declassified or disclosed under any freedom of information law, without the prior written consent of the
Manager, Combined Threat Assessment Group.
If the originator has agreed that a Department may extract or copy CTAG assessment material, the
material concerned MUST be accorded the same protection in all respects as the original material.
Each extract must show clearly the reference number, date and security grading of the original report,
together with all caveats and handling restrictions. In addition to the above, this material may be
incorporated into electronic systems so long as those systems are accredited at the appropriate level
(SECRET or TOP SECRET) and fully protected against unauthorised access.
Queries or feedback can be provided to the following:
s6(a)
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R // AUS CAN GBR NZL USA
CTAG THREAT DEFINITIONS
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