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Report Detail
Context
6. (C) The caliphate in Syria and Iraq proclaimed by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant
(ISIL) in June 2014 has been in decline since mid-2016, when the Iraqi city of Fallujah
was liberated from ISIL control. As of early 2017, anti-ISIL military forces, consisting of
Iraqi and Syrian armed forces and their international backers, Kurdish forces, anti-ISIL
Syrian opposition groups, and US-led Coalition Forces have significantly reduced ISIL’s
territory, troops, and finances.
7. (C) Mid-2016 also marked a turning point in ISIL’s messaging to supporters. In a 2016
Ramadan message, now-deceased ISIL spokesman Abu Muhammad al-Adnani
encouraged supporters to conduct attacks in Western countries instead of travelling to
the caliphate. Similar messages were broadcast by ISIL leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi in
November 2016, and by Adnani’s successor, Abu al-Hassan al-Muhajir, in December
2016.
8. (C) The loss of ISIL’s territorial caliphate will likely diminish ISIL’s appeal among its
supporters worldwide, many of whom were attracted by the prospect of life in an
idealised Islamic state. Nonetheless, it is highly unlikely this will bring about the end of
ISIL as a transnational terrorist organisation, or the end of potential security threats
from its supporters, some of whom will likely seek retribution on the West.
Assessment
S // NZL
Support for ISIL in New Zealand
9. (S//NZEO) There has been a small reduction in support for ISIL among New Zealand-
based extremists since mid-2016, when ISIL’s caliphate began its decline. Recent
reporting indicates pro-ISIL rhetoric among some New Zealand-based Islamist
extremists has declined, s6(a)
.
However, ISIL still carries the prestige of its past successes, and new ISIL supporters
based in New Zealand continue to be identified by NZSIS despite ISIL’s recent territorial
losses in Syria and Iraq.
10. (S//NZEO) ISIL is not yet defeated in Syria and Iraq, and the impact of its rapid rise to
prominence and earlier military victories likely remains a source of inspiration for ISIL
supporters. s6(a)
This level of
support is unlikely to endure in the long term, however, unless ISIL manages to regain
its previous image of strength and success.
i.
s6(a)
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ii.
(S//NZEO) Despite the group’s decline, New Zealand-based Islamist extremists
continue to express support for ISIL online, although such support has not to
date resulted in significant real-world activities.
Radicalisation
11. (S//NZEO)
ISIL’s decline has possibly contributed to a decrease in radicalising
activity by known New Zealand-based supporters. ISIL’s decline has possibly been
among the factors contributing to their reduced support for the group and diminished
radicalising activity; however, a new or increased focus on personal or domestic
matters likely has been more significant in most cases. Nonetheless, there is a realistic
possibility new radicalising influences could arise in New Zealand—especially within
online networks of ISIL supporters—as ISIL’s physical caliphate declines and the group
is forced to rely more on its online networks to recruit new supporters and spread
propaganda.
i.
s6(a)
Travel aspirations
12. (S//NZEO)
New Zealand’s ISIL supporters will likely continue to aspire to travel
offshore to engage in militant jihad alongside ISIL in the near term. s6(a)
While interest in
such travel will likely continue in the near term while support for ISIL endures, passport
cancellations, a lack of finances, and other personal factors make it unlikely that any of
these individuals will succeed in reaching ISIL-held territories.
i.
s6(a)
13. (S//NZEO) It is unlikely ISIL’s caliphate is the sole drawcard for these aspiring travellers.
s6(a)
primary motivations likely remain militant jihad or
martyrdom—activities they could still undertake in other regions, should ISIL be
defeated in Syria and Iraq.
14. (S//NZEO) There is a realistic possibility New Zealand’s ISIL supporters will show interest
in travelling to alternative conflict regions for martyrdom or militant jihad, should ISIL
be convincingly defeated in Syria and Iraq. This interest may include theatres more
accessible from New Zealand, such as those in Southeast Asia.
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i.
s6(a)
ii.
s6(a)
Jihadist allegiances
15. (S//NZEO)
There is a realistic possibility some New Zealand-based ISIL supporters
will switch allegiance to other terrorist entities as ISIL loses power and prestige.
s6(a). Summary: Prior to ISIL's emergence some New Zealand ISIL supports favoured other
terrorist groups.
ISIL’s early military successes, its physical
caliphate, and its sophisticated propaganda output were likely key factors in drawing
these supporters to ISIL; likewise, ISIL’s decline will possibly encourage New Zealand
extremists to support other Islamist terrorist groups, or Islamist causes in general.
Domestic terror threat
16. (S//NZEO)
ISIL’s decline is unlikely to have a significant impact on the threat of a
terrorist attack in New Zealand. s6(a)
Although it remains possible that ISIL’s messaging and
propaganda could contribute to a known or previously unknown New Zealand
extremist undertaking a likely unsophisticated domestic attack, we assess such
messaging would likely be one contributing factor among other triggers.
ENDS
NZSIS Contact: Intelligence Publications Manager s6(a)
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Distribution
Domestic
s6(a)
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HANDLING AND SECURITY INSTRUCTIONS
GENERAL
This report is issued for intelligence purposes only, and remains the property of NZSIS. No action may be taken on this
intelligence without prior reference to the originator. This intelligence MAY NOT be used evidentially.
This report MAY NOT be distributed to, nor may its contents be discussed with any person who is not authorised to read SI
reports at the appropriate level (SECRET or TOP SECRET), unless the consent of the originator has first been obtained. It also MAY
NOT be passed to other Departments, but the originator will consider promptly any request for additions to the distribution.
s6(a)
EXTRACTING AND COPYING If the originator has agreed that a Department may extract or copy SIR material for collation files, the files concerned MUST be
accorded the same protection in all respects as the original material. Each extract must show clearly the reference number, date
and security grading of the original report, together with all caveats and handling restrictions. Requests for additional clean
copies of SIR reports may be addressed to the originator. In addition to the above, this material may be incorporated into
electronic systems so long as those systems are accredited at the appropriate level (SECRET or TOP SECRET) and fully protected
against unauthorised access.
ATTACHMENTS Photographs, plans, sketches and tables attached to SIR reports MAY NOT be reproduced without the consent of the originator.
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