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attack targeted the Manchester Arena, one of the largest indoor music venues in the
UK. At least 22 people were killed and 59 injured in the attack.
3. (R) The United Kingdom’s Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC) have raised their
national terrorism threat level to CRITICAL, the highest level in their system.
4. (R) CTAG emphasises that the forensic investigation is ongoing and also that the
intelligence picture is still dynamic and developing. Depending on the nature or scope
of any developments, ongoing assessment will be required to ensure that New
Zealand implications are specifically considered.
New Zealand Situation
5. (S FVEY) CTAG is currently not aware of any direct link between the Manchester
attack and New Zealand.s6(a)
6. (S FVEY) CTAG has not sighted any intelligence to indicate the Manchester terrorist
attack has inspired New Zealand-based Islamist extremists to consider conducting a
terrorist attack themselves or to hasten any aspirational plan already contemplated.
7. (S FVEY) Previous terrorist attacks in the West, such as Westminster in March 2017,
the Pulse nightclub shooting in Orlando in June 2016, and the 2015 Paris attacks,
evoked a range of reactions from Islamist extremists in New Zealand. Responses
included anti-Western statements and rhetoric, generalised support for the attacks,
and comments on perceived media bias in the way events were reported. s6(a)
8. (S FVEY) s6(a)
Potential Implications for New Zealand
9. (C) CTAG has seen no domestic or international reporting which impels us to alter
the current terrorism threat level for New Zealand, or for any domestic major event
currently under consideration. CTAG notes ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant)
and AQ (al-Qa’ida) have both advocated for attacks during
Ramadan, which starts on
26 May. We are also mindful that several 2016-17 attacks in the West have targeted
places of mass gathering, such as public markets or festivals, transport hubs,
concerts and entertainment venues. Ultimately, we are not aware of any person or
group having any more advanced intent and capability to conduct a terrorist attack in
New Zealand as a direct consequence of the Manchester attack.
10. (C) Copy-cat attacks are a recognised phenomenon. We assess ISIL relies on the
impact of successful attacks and public claims of responsibility to further both its
reputation and its pool of potential recruits. Similarly, a call by ISIL External
Operations head Abu Muhammed al-Adnani to conduct attacks during
Ramadan in
2016 is judged by CTAG and partners to have been a legitimising factor in several
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attacks, especially in Europe, during that time. s6(a), s6(b)(i)
11. (C) Events such as the Manchester attack, by design, create tremendous media
coverage as well as social interest and indignation. They can also serve to highlight
and exacerbate perceived security vulnerabilities. This sensitivity is particularly and
understandably acute as New Zealand prepares to host several high profile sports
events, concerts and diplomatic visitors, amongst a range of public events.
Upcoming Major Events in New Zealand
12. (R)
2017 British and Irish Lions Tour. CTAG has not sighted any reporting to
indicate a heightened threat towards the British and Irish Lions rugby union tour,
which takes place in New Zealand between 3 June and 8 July 2017. However, we
note places of mass gathering have frequently been the target of attacks
internationally. CTAG will continue to monitor our intelligence holdings in the lead up
to and during the Lions tour.
13. (C)
Visiting dignitaries. CTAG has not sighted any reporting to indicate any
heightened threat towards upcoming official visits to New Zealand by dignitaries,
either specifically or generally. We note some visiting dignitaries might be viewed by
New Zealand-based Islamist extremists as more legitimate or permissible due to a
variety of factors specific to the person or office which they hold. However, we have
not sighted any reporting to suggest attack planning against dignitary while they are
in New Zealand.
14. (R)
Sports and entertainment events. CTAG has not sighted any reporting to
indicate any heightened threat towards major sports events or concerts but notes the
desirability of places of mass gathering as a significant targeting factor in recent
international attacks.
15. (R)
Commemorative events. CTAG has not sighted any reporting to indicate any
heightened threat towards imminent commemorative events including the 100 year
commemoration of the Battle of Messines at Pukeahu National War Memorial Park
on 07 June 2017.
Other possible domestic reactions
16. (R) CTAG notes that social, political and religious tensions can rise following terrorist
attacks in Europe. It is possible that elements of the New Zealand community could
respond to the Manchester attack with xenophobic statements, tagging and other
forms of expression or intolerance. CTAG has seen no local indications of this type of
response. We judge that if this was to occur, such expressions would be more likely
to be isolated and unlikely to gain wide following.
17. (C) Right-wing groups in the United Kingdom and Europe have used terrorist attacks
to underscore their own narrative and rally support to social or political causes.
According to open source reporting, the English Defence League conducted a small
protest in Manchester following the attack. Additionally, an arson attack took place
against a Mosque in Oldham, Greater Manchester, five hours after the attack.
18. (R) A heightened incidence of and sensitivity to bomb threats in New Zealand,
including hoaxes, is possible for a period of time after the Manchester attack. A hoax
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is a deliberately false threat, intended to cause nuisance and disruption and
potentially to test the response by emergency services. Disgruntled employees,
mischievous individuals or criminal groups are more likely to deliberately use hoaxes.
They may not have the intent to cause physical harm, but instead seek personal gain
by impacting the reputation or livelihood of affected businesses and individuals.
Hoaxes will remain a feature of the security environment in New Zealand, potentially
more so in the near future following events in Manchester.
Threat Level
19. (R) The terrorism threat level for New Zealand remains
LOW;
terrorist attack is
assessed as possible, but is not expected.
20. (R) CTAG will continue to assess the threat implications for New Zealand of the
evolving investigation in the UK and will review threat levels accordingly.
s6(a)
Prepared by
Reviewed b
Released by s6(a)
Intelligence cut off date: 25 May 2017
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CONFIDENCE STATEMENT
(R) This Threat Assessment draws on intelligence from a range of sources on whose
reliability we comment in the main text where appropriate.
(R) Our judgements regarding the threat of terrorism have been drawn from classified and
open source material, of which we are confident of the accuracy.
(R) The assessment is reliant upon an absence of threat reporting rather than positive
reporting that threats are not extant. CTAG notes that activity could occur, or may have
already occurred, that is not detected by available sources.
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HANDLING INSTRUCTIONS
This information is the property of the Combined Threat Assessment Group. It is provided to your
agency in confidence and must not be disseminated further without the prior written consent of the
Manager, Combined Threat Assessment Group. It is to be used for intelligence purposes only. It
must not be used or disclosed in any legal, administrative, or review proceedings, nor reclassified,
declassified or disclosed under any freedom of information law, without the prior written consent of the
Manager, Combined Threat Assessment Group.
If the originator has agreed that a Department may extract or copy CTAG assessment material, the
material concerned MUST be accorded the same protection in all respects as the original material.
Each extract must show clearly the reference number, date and security grading of the original report,
together with all caveats and handling restrictions. In addition to the above, this material may be
incorporated into electronic systems so long as those systems are accredited at the appropriate level
(SECRET or TOP SECRET) and fully protected against unauthorised access.
Queries or feedback can be provided to the following:
s6(a)
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R // AUS CAN GBR NZL USA
CTAG THREAT DEFINITIONS
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