21-M-00588
s 9(2)(a)
THE ACT
Dear
s 9(2)(a)
Concerns regarding reporting on forest and rural fire danger levels
Thank you for your letter of 19 February 2021 about concerns with reporting on forest and rural
fire danger levels in
Our atmosphere and climate 2020. The Ministry for the Environment (the
UNDER
Ministry) places a high value on the quality of our analysis, and we always welcome feedback
on our reports.
I acknowledge your comments about the appropriateness of the data used in relation to trends
and fuel types, and the resulting media interest. Particularly since the Ministry received similar
feedback on the wildfire risk discussion in the report from other interested parties.
To address the matters raised, the Ministry worked with officials from Fire and Emergency New
Zealand (FENZ), NIWA and Scion. We were able to satisfy concerns that the data, analysis,
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and statements in the report were correct, and that the data and trends in the report were
interpreted and presented correctly.
We think some of the confusion may have stemmed from the use of two different data sources
in the report. Data on days with very high and extreme wildfire danger were used to analyse
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trends in the past (and identified six sites with very likely increasing trends, and six sites with
very likely decreasing trends). Although the Ministry determined that the analysis was correct,
we acknowledge the need to better convey the nuance with the forest/grass fire risk data in
the future.
Working with scientists at Scion, the Ministry also addressed a concern around the statement
about a projected 70% increase in fire danger levels by 2040. This statement is taken from a
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modelling study (Watt et al., 2019), and is not extrapolated from the wildfire risk indicator data.
Following discussion, the Ministry updated the citation in the report so that it references the
most current and relevant research results that calculate this statistic.
These changes were considered sufficient to address concerns around messaging and data
handling stemming from the report, and the Ministry has committed to work more closely with
FENZ on wildfire risk data, analysis, and communications in our future reporting. While the
study you published (Dudfield, Pearce & Cameron, 2021) was not available to the Ministry
during publication of this report, it will be considered along with any other recent findings in our
next wildfire reporting.
THE ACT
Yours sincerely
Vicky Robertson
UNDER
Chief Executive and Secretary for the Environment
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