File No. 2021-2197
Darin Thacker
[FYI request #15322 email]
Dear Darin
Thank you for your email of 2 May 2021 to the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE)
requesting the fol owing information under the Official Information Act 1982 (the Act):
Please provide me with the most recent long-term electricity pricing forecasts prepared by
the Ministry.
If the forecasts on the Energy Insights website at https://www.mbie.govt.nz/building-and-
energy/energy-and-natural-resources/energy-statistics-and-model ing/energy-
model ing/new-zealands-energy-outlook/new-zealands-energy-outlook-electricity-insight/
are the most recent forecasts then please confirm when they were updated, as there is no
date of publication on any of the Excel reports.
Also, please provide any analysis of the Climate Change Commission electricity pricing
forecasts and how they compare to MBIE forecasts. For reference, CCC forecasts are
available at https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/get-involved/sharing-our-
thinking/data-and-model ing/
In response to your request for the most recent long-term electricity pricing forecasts prepared by
MBIE, the forecast on the Energy Insights website is the most recent one.
However, we published the Electricity Demand and Generation Scenarios (EDGS) in 2019
(https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/5977-electricity-demand-and-generation-scenarios).
In this report, wholesale electricity prices in real terms are expected to remain at the current level.
However, the expectation is dependent on a methodological assumption that wholesale prices are set
based on the long-run marginal cost of new build entering the market.
Your request for any analysis of the Climate Change Commission electricity pricing forecasts and how
they compare to MBIE forecasts. I am refusing this under section 18(e) of the Act; the document al eged
to contain the information requested does not exist or, despite reasonable efforts to locate it, cannot be
found.
You have the right under section 28(3) of the Act to request a review by the Ombudsman. The relevant
details can be found here: www.ombudsman.parliament.nz
Yours sincerely
Daniel Griffiths
Manager Markets, Evidence and Insights
Digital, Data and Insights
1
