[UNCLASSIFIED]
OIA ref: 2021-031
Darin Thacker
[FYI request #15681 email]
18 June 2021
Kia ora Darin
As you know, on 9 June 2021 the Minister of Climate Change transferred the following request you made
under the Official Information Act (OIA) to the Climate Change Commission (the Comssision):
“Please provide me with the report on forecast wholesale electricity prices prepared by the Climate
Change Commission referred to in worksheet 'Chapter 5' of the spreadsheet available at https://ccc-
production-media.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/public/2021-Draft-Advice-Report-charts-and-
data-v4.xlsx
Also, please provide any long term electricity price forecasts prepared by other bodies that the
commission is aware of and reviewed while preparing their own forecast.”
The Commission’s report on forecast wholesale electricity prices
The ‘Chapter 5’ worksheet to which you refer cites and relies on modelling undertaken by Energy Link
Limited on behalf of the Commission, rather than any report on wholesale electricity prices. As no such
report exists, I am refusing this part of your request under section 18(d) of the Act.
I can, however, tell you that the Commission has published the following information to help the public
better understand our wholesale electricity forecasts and how we arrived at these:
• a workbook containing the raw results from our electricity market modelling, a summary of inputs
and scenario and sensitivity descriptions
• a slide deck summarising the key results from the electricity market modelling.
These can be found under the Electricity market modelling tab on the data and modelling page of the
Commission’s website or accessed directly at
https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/get-
involved/sharing-our-thinking/data-and-modelling/. In addition to these resources, we presented the
results from our wholesale electricity modelling, as part of our open Zoom series on 26 February 2021 and
answered questions from the attendees. A recording of this session is available on our website at
https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/get-involved/events/.
It is also worth noting that the wholesale price projections we provided are an extension of the modelling
undertaken by the Interim Climate Change Committee as part of the Electricity Enquiry Report. This report
and supporting evidence can be found in full at
https://www.iccc.mfe.govt.nz/what-we-
do/energy/electricity-inquiry-final-report/.
[UNCLASSIFIED]
[UNCLASSIFIED]
Long-term electricity price forecasts prepared by other bodies
As far as the Commission is aware, there is little work on long-term electricity price forecasts for New
Zealand available in the public domain. As noted above, the Commission’s wholesale price projections were
developed by the Commission using modelling-techniques based on those used by the Interim Climate
Change Committee in the Electricity Enquiry Report.
I hope you find this information helpful. However, you have the right to seek an investigation and review by
the Ombudsman of this decision. Information about how to make a complaint is available at
www.ombudsman.parliament.nz or freephone 0800 802 602.
Please note that the Commission has a policy to proactively release OIA responses to help others have
access to more information. Consequently, this letter will be published on our website with your name and
contact details redacted to protect your privacy.
Kind regards
Astrid Nunns
General Manager Strategy, Planning and Engagement
Climate Change Commission
[UNCLASSIFIED]
