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GCSP Population Projections

T Dobbie made this Official Information request to Christchurch City Council

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From: T Dobbie

Dear Christchurch City Council,

Please provide data used for the basis of the population projections for the GCSP.

I note we have had low growth rate over the last 34 years, a decreasing birth rate and increasing death rate. Interested to see how the population predictions were determined. If immigration is involved, where will the new people be coming from?

Ward by ward data and predictions please.

Figures for Waimakariri and Selwyn would be appreciated alongside the Christchurch data.

Thank you,

Yours faithfully,

T Dobbie

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From: Official Information
Christchurch City Council

Kia ora T Dobbie,

Thank you for your email.

We are handling your request under the Local Government Official Information and Meetings Act 1987 (LGOIMA). We have forwarded it to the appropriate Christchurch City Council staff, and we will provide a response or update within 20 working days of the date we received your request. If we are unable to respond to your request by then, we will notify you of an extension of that timeframe.

If you have any queries, please feel free to contact me. If any additional factors come to light which are relevant to your request, please do not hesitate to contact me so that these can be taken into account.

Kind regards,

Ella Sullivan
Official Information Advisor
Office of the Mayor and Chief Executive

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From: Sullivan, Ella
Christchurch City Council

Kia ora

I refer to your request for information regarding the data used to determine the Greater Christchurch Spatial Plan (GCSP).

All of the information on the GCSP can be found here: https://greaterchristchurch.org.nz/urban...
The documents that assisted the draft spatial plan can be found through this link. This includes the Housing Capacity assessment, submissions made, the Ngā Kaupapa Report, and much more.

If you have any questions regarding any of this material please let me know.

You have the right to seek an investigation and review by the Ombudsman of this decision. Information about how to make a complaint is available at http://www.ombudsman.parliament.nz/ or freephone 0800 802 602.

Kind regards
Ella

Ella Sullivan
Official Information Advisor
Office of the Mayor and Chief Executive

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From: T Dobbie

Dear Sullivan, Ella,

Thank you for the link although I cannot see the information that I am looking for listed there.

Please provide DATA used for the basis of the population projections for the GCSP.

I note we have had low growth rate over the last 34 years, we have a decreasing birth rate and increasing death rate. I would like to see how the population predictions of a 44% growth rate were determined. If immigration is involved, where will the new people be coming from and what qualifications will they have to contribute to making our city better?

WARD by WARD data and predictions please.

Figures for Waimakariri and Selwyn would be appreciated alongside the Christchurch data.

Yours sincerely,

T Dobbie

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From: Official Information
Christchurch City Council

Kia ora

I have passed this onto our staff to see whether there is any additional information available.

I will let you know as soon as I hear back.

Kind regards
Ella

Ella Sullivan
Official Information Advisor
Office of the Mayor and Chief Executive

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From: Official Information
Christchurch City Council

Kia ora

 

Thank you for your patience while we looked into this further.

 

The information is all online under 'background Documents' at the end of
the Spatial Plan website found [1]here.

 

The key documents to look at are the Housing Development Capacity
Assessment March 2023 and the supporting Livingston Report. The raw data
is from Stats NZ, which is also publicly available on their website, but
that will go to the level of Statistical Areas, not to the wards.

 

The assumptions are in the HCA Pg41, which is a duplication of the Stats
NZ website. The HCA then goes through and determines what projection is
appropriate. Link to the HCA can be found [2]here. Note this does include
comparisons with Waimakariri and Selwyn as well.

 

The Livingston Report on Housing Need shows what that projection looks for
households and then with some additional competitiveness. The Livingston
Report outlines the table of data used. This can be seen [3]here.

 

Note all of the information these predictions were based on are available
on the public website. There is no other information that we hold.

 

You have the right to seek an investigation and review by the Ombudsman of
this decision. Information about how to make a complaint is available at
[4]www.ombudsman.parliament.nz or freephone 0800 802 602.

 

Kind regards

Ella

 

Ella Sullivan
Official Information Advisor
Office of the Mayor and Chief Executive

 

 

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From: T Dobbie

Dear Official Information,

Thank you for the links to the GCSP and the Livingston Report.

I have read through the information although that still does not answer the question of how the population will grow at the stated rates. I refer you to my original question...

"I note we have had low growth rate over the last 34 years, a decreasing birth rate and increasing death rate. Interested to see how the population predictions were determined. If immigration is involved, where will the new people be coming from?"

Reading through the GCSP it states that the population will grow yet not what will cause the growth. What are the assumptions for the projections to have foundation?

Yours sincerely,

T Dobbie

Link to this

From: Official Information
Christchurch City Council

Hi T Dobbie

Thank you for your email.

I will discuss this with our staff, but as I understand it, I do not think there is anything more that Council can provide. I will be in touch when I have confirmation.

Kind regards
Ella

Ella Sullivan
Official Information Advisor
Office of the Mayor and Chief Executive

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Link to this

From: Official Information
Christchurch City Council

Kia ora T Dobbie

I can confirm the information provided is the entirety of what we hold. Any further information is therefore refused under LGOIMA s17(e) - the information does not exist.

There was full SCP (Special Consultative Procedure) on the spatial plan where anyone was free to submit and engage in the process. If you have not seen this before, here is the link to all information related to the spatial plan including submissions, officer reports and the hearings panel report.

https://greaterchristchurch.org.nz/urban...

Kind regards
Ella

Ella Sullivan
Official Information Advisor
Office of the Mayor and Chief Executive

show quoted sections

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