Dear Tom Crick/Dr Blackwell,

Thank you for your previous response, I appreciate the effort that has gone
into it and it has clarified some things for me but I have some more questions to get the answers I am looking for.

This is the quote from interest.co.nz on Commissioner Wright's
report.

"Commissioner Jan Wright appeared before the Local Government and
Environment select committee to discuss her recent report‘Changing
climate and rising seas: Understanding the science”’, which spelt
out that a 30cm rise in sea levels by 2050 was already ‘baked in’."

You state that this conclusion is based on 2013 IPCC projections
that average sea level could rise 17 - 38 cm by the 2046 - 2065
period and the starting point for this is the 1986 and 2005 sea
level average.

If we take commissioner Wrights 30 cms and the 1986 - 2005 average
as the starting point between 2006 - 2025 sea level needs to be on
average 10cm higher.

I want to know if are are in fact on this track. My questions are;

1. What was the global average sea level in the 1986 - 2005 period.
2. What is the average so far in the 2006 - 2015 period and how much higher is it compared to the 86-05 average.
3. How accurate are these averages, +/- how many mm are required to get 90% confidence.

Thank you
Warwick Schaffer

Dear Office of the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment,

90% confidence should read 95% confidence.

Yours faithfully,

Warwick Schaffer