Printed from https://fyi.org.nz./request/11320-records-mentioning-scientist-patrick-frank on November 16, 2024 11:45

Records mentioning scientist Patrick Frank

Chris Johnston made this Official Information request to Ministry for the Environment

The request was successful.

From: Chris Johnston

Dear Ministry for the Environment,

Please provide any records (including but not limited to internal/external: documents, emails, notes, minutes, text messages, or social media messages) mentioning scientist Patrick Frank.

For context - so that you can correctly identify the individual - some links relevant to his work are mentioned in the links below.
1) This is the peer reviewed paper (published on 6 September 2019) which finds that the statistical techniques used for forecasting global surface air temperature have not used an appropriate error propagation technique - and are therefore unreliable forecasts for the IPCC or governments to be using for policiy decisions.
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10....
or
https://t.co/tdnQhjzDCS?amp=1

2) This is Patrick Frank's blog about his paper when it was published - which was rather scathing and impolite.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/07/p...
or
https://t.co/VxX54HJh7f?amp=1

Yours faithfully,

Chris Johnston

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From: Ministerials
Ministry for the Environment

Kia ora and thank you for contacting our team.

We will endeavour to respond to your request as soon as possible and in any event no later than 20 working days after the day your request was received. If we are unable to respond to your request by then, we will notify you of an extension to that timeframe.

Please note the Ministry for the Environment will release responses to selected OIA requests on our OIA responses page shortly after the response has been sent.

If you have any queries, please feel free to contact us.

Ngâ mihi nui

Executive Relations team
Ministry for the Environment – Manatû Mô Te Taiao
Email: [MFE request email] Website: www.mfe.govt.nz
23 Kate Sheppard Place, Thorndon, Wellington 6143

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From: Ministerials
Ministry for the Environment

Attachment Signed letter for Chris Johnston 19 D 02214 02216 02217.pdf
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Attachment 19 D 02218 Chris Johnston released material.pdf
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Attachment 19 D 02218 Chris Johnston signed letter.pdf
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Attachment Chris Johnston 02214 02216 02217 documents bound.pdf
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Kia ora Chris,

Please find attached the signed letter and material in response to your Official information Act requests dated 29 and 30 September 2019 found below. Please note that the Ministry for the Environment has combined three of these requests into one response and has answered the last (19-D-02218) as a standalone request.

This response is being sent to all four of the FYI links you have used in making this request.

Kind regards,
Curtis Hammond
Advisor
Ministry for the Environment

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From: Chris Johnston <[email address]>
Sent: Monday, 30 September 2019 1:03 AM
To: Ministerials <[MFE request email]>
Subject: Official Information request - Records mentioning climate activist Greta Thunberg or either of her parents, (Malena Ernman, Svante Thunberg)

Dear Ministry for the Environment,

Please provide any records (including but not limited to internal/external: documents, emails, notes, minutes, text messages, or social media messages) mentioning climate activist Greta Thunberg or either of her parents, (Malena Ernman, Svante Thunberg). I do not need copies of public news articles held.

For context - so that you can correctly identify the individual - some links relevant to her work are listed below:
This is the Wikipedia page outlining her activities:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greta_Thun...

Yours faithfully,

Chris Johnston

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From: Ministerials
Ministry for the Environment

Attachment 19 D 02217 Chris Johnston letter vF.pdf
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Attachment 19 D 02217 Chris Johnston compiled information vF.pdf
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Kia ora Chris,

Please find attached a response to your 30 September 2019 request for official information.

Please note the Ministry for the Environment will release responses to selected OIA requests on our OIA responses page shortly after the response has been sent.

Ngā mihi nui
Curtis
Advisor
Ministry for the Environment

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Link to this

From: Ministerials
Ministry for the Environment

Attachment 19 D 02217 Chris Johnston compiled information vF.pdf
603K Download View as HTML

Attachment 19 D 02217 Chris Johnston letter vF.pdf
602K Download View as HTML

Kia ora Chris,

Please find attached a response to your 30 September 2019 request for official information. This has been sent with the corrected subject line for clarity.

Please note the Ministry for the Environment will release responses to selected OIA requests on our OIA responses page shortly after the response has been sent.

Ngā mihi nui
Curtis
Advisor
Ministry for the Environment

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From: Chris Johnston

Dear Ministerials,

Thanks for the reply with the requested information about Dr Patrick Frank. The OIA referenced his latest 2019 paper.

It appears that the Ministry for the Environment has not encountered this peer reviewed and published 2019 paper which highlights the compounding level of uncertainty in the IPCC models as each simulated year is used to predict the next year.

It is potentially reasonable that the MfE may not have heard of this paper, and I see that no-one referenced it in the Select Committee submissions for the Zero Carbon Bill.

Now that the MfE are aware, you do have a duty of care to ask for its findings to be reviewed as the paper calls into doubt the degree to which the simulation models relied on by the IPCC are useful to inform policy advice at all.

A similar OIA to NIWA established that they were also unaware of this 2019 paper.

With the large impact of economic decisions that will be made from the passing of the Zero Carbon Act, these types of core technical critiques of the IPCC methods are important to note as caveats when providing advice to Ministers .... and the new Climate Change Commission.

I look forward to seeing a trail of documentation in future OIAs that assesses what credence this paper is given by the MfE, the scientists that you correspond with to obtain a professional assessment, and how your conclusions are incorporated into future MfE advice/recommendations.

Yours sincerely,

Chris Johnston

Link to this

From: Ministerials
Ministry for the Environment

Hi Chris,

Thank you for your below email. I have passed your feedback to the team.

Kind regards,
Curtis

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Things to do with this request

Anyone:
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