To the Ministry of Health,

I am submitting this request under the Official Information Act, looking to get some clarity on New Zealand's preparedness for the increasing risk of H5N1 avian influenza spreading among mammalian species and potentially mutating to enable human-to-human transmission.

I am aware that key stakeholders, including the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) and the Department of Conservation (DoC), are monitoring the virus's global spread among wildlife and implementing reporting systems. However, my concern pertains specifically to readiness for an escalation involving mammalian transmission and eventual human outbreaks, which international experts have warned may be a matter of "when, not if."

Specific details I believe would benefit from greater public clarity:

1. Threat Assessment:

a) What is the government’s assessment of H5N1's threat level in terms of its mutation potential and interspecies spread, including emerging data on mammalian infections and mutations that increase human transmissibility?

b) What modelling, if any, has been conducted to forecast the impact of a human outbreak in New Zealand?

2. Prevention Measures:

a) What measures are in place to prevent the virus from crossing into New Zealand, especially with regard to international biosecurity protocols?

b) Are there any planned or ongoing enhancements to border biosecurity in light of H5N1's spread?

3. Pre-Pandemic Stockpiling:

a) Is New Zealand stockpiling vaccines or antivirals specifically for H5N1?

b) If so, could you provide details on current stockpile levels and any recent procurement efforts, particularly in comparison to other nations (e.g., the United States ordering 4.8 million doses of H5N1 vaccine from CSL Seqirus)?

c) What contingency plans are in place to rapidly scale up vaccine production or importation if human-to-human transmission begins?

4. Public Health Readiness:

a) Are there public health campaigns or educational programmes planned to prepare the population for the potential risks of H5N1?

b) What strategies are being developed to ensure the healthcare system can handle a surge in cases resulting from a human-to-human transmission outbreak? The United States, for example, has secured large-scale vaccine stockpiles and is conducting trials on rapid-response mRNA platforms to address evolving strains of H5N1.

I understand my request is quite involved, so am happy for any extension to the deadline required for a more accurate response to be applied.

Kind regards,
Aaron Goodwin