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ECAN weather events data

Tracy Clark made this Official Information request to Canterbury Regional Council

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From: Tracy Clark

Dear Canterbury Regional Council,

In your draft long term plan you repeatable discuss the effect of climate change on flooding in the region. Given we are now in a climate emergency can ECAN provide the numbers of flooding events in Canterbury occurring over the last 50 years, to show that, due to climate change, this number has been increasing and hence concrete evidence of this emergency?

Yours faithfully,

Tracy Clark

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From: LGOIMA
Canterbury Regional Council

Kia ora Tracy,

 

We are getting in touch to seek some clarification around your request for
the number of flooding events occurring in Canterbury over the last 50
years (1974 – 2024).

 

We unfortunately are not able to provide this information before the close
of our public consultation period for the draft Long Term Plan on Sunday
14 April. We would like to work with you to provide you with what we can,
to enable you to make an informed submission on the draft Long Term Plan
2024-34.

 

Could you please contact our office via phone 0800 324 636 between 8 – 5
Mon – Fri (except public holidays) and request to speak with Nick
Griffiths who is expecting your call to talk through what we can provide
and in what timeframes. You can also contact us via email
([1][email address]) and we will ensure your email and contact
details will be directed to a staff member to get in touch with you.

 

Ngâ mihi,

Environment Canterbury

LGOIMA
[2]Environment Canterbury
Environment Canterbury
PO Box 345, Christchurch 8140
[3][ECAN request email] Customer Services: [4]0800 324 636
24 Hours: [5]0800 76 55 88
[6]ecan.govt.nz
[7]Facebook   [8]Twitter   [9]YouTube  
[10]Instagram

References

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6. https://www.ecan.govt.nz/?utm_source=ema...
7. https://www.facebook.com/EnvironmentCant...
8. https://twitter.com/ECan
9. https://www.youtube.com/user/ECanGovt
10. https://www.instagram.com/environment_ca...

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From: Tracy Clark

Dear LGOIMA,

Thank you for your reply
although this reply will be outside the required time frame for the public submissions it would still be valuable to understand with what certainty ECAN has around these statements. ECAN believes that weather events have been worsening over the time frame of, say, 50 years (or some other arbitrary time frame). Given the certainty that ECAN proposes this can ECAN release the data that it is using to claim this?

Yours sincerely,

Tracy Clark

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From: LGOIMA
Canterbury Regional Council

Kia ora Tracy,

Thank you for your query about the effects of climate change on flooding.

Recent research into the effects of climate change on severe weather events in New Zealand highlights the need to plan for and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Environment Canterbury works closely with universities, research agencies and the Ministry for the Environment to understand the impacts of climate change on the region. We use the available information to inform our workplans.

The recently published Our atmosphere and climate 2023 report (Ministry for the Environment & Stats NZ) notes that it is highly likely that extreme weather events will become increasingly frequent and severe. Between 1909 and 2022, the annual average temperature in New Zealand increased by 1.26 (± 0.27) degrees Celsius. A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture (about 7% more for each degree of warming), which increases the potential for more intense rainfall and associated flooding.

An example of a severe weather event in Canterbury was the extreme rainfall recorded over the period 29-31 May 2021. Research undertaken as part of the Extreme Weather Event Real-time Attribution Machine (EWERAM) project found that the extreme rainfall that brought flooding to Canterbury in May 2021 was 10–15% more intense as a result of human influence on the climate system. The researchers found that such events are at least 20% more likely to occur under current climate conditions than in preindustrial times.

More information on climate projections and risk assessments for the Canterbury region is available here: https://itstimecanterbury.co.nz/science-....

Ngā mihi
Environment Canterbury

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From: Tracy Clark

Dear LGOIMA,

Thank you for your reply but you have not answered the question.
I asked for data that showed that events have been increasing over the last 50 years (or some time frame of significance) not that events are predicted to increase because of some grand modeling.

You cite a single severe weather event as some proof that shows 10-15% increase and yet you have nothing to show this was any different from any past event. As is well known there are many chaotic weather patterns (la nina / el nino) and geological events ( volcanic events) that can be easily attributed to causing the single severe weather event you cite. Citing one severe event does not prove anything significant to show a pattern.

Can you or can you not produce rainfall data to a significant time frame that shows what you state - that rainfalls are increasing - by using actual data - [ I have no interest in climate projections]?

Yours sincerely,

Tracy Clark

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